Light turnout expected by Yorba Linda voters in special election; city's GOP registration drops below 50 percent in latest pre-election report

Fewer than one-third of Yorba Linda's 43,000 registered voters are expected to cast ballots in Tuesday's special election to fill the vacant 3^rd District seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

That estimate is based on the turnout for the city's two most recent special elections – both of which had a higher profile and were harder fought than the present low-key race to replace Todd Spitzer, elected district attorney in November, on the five-member county panel.

And most of the votes that will be cast will be on mail-in ballots, with fewer than 10 percent of voters visiting precincts to fill out ballots, again based on the city's experience in previous special elections.

The contentious October 2014 unsuccessful attempt to recall City Council members Tom Lindsey and Craig Young had a 31.6 percent turnout of the city's registered voters, with 22.7 percent using mail-in ballots and 8.9 percent filling out precinct ballots.

The June 2007 election to fill a vacant council seat won by Hank Wedaa, the city's longest-serving council member, had a 20.5 percent turnout of registered voters, with 14.6 percent using mail-in ballots and 5.9 percent filling out precinct ballots.

By contrast, 76.6 percent of city voters cast ballots in the 2018 general election, 47.6 percent on mail-in ballots and 29 percent on precinct ballots, and 50.5 percent of voters cast ballots in the 2018 June primary election, 30.7 percent on mail-in ballots and 19.8 percent on precinct ballots.

Two factors might increase Tuesday's turnout: the envelopes provided to return ballots this year are postpaid, and the law now allows “conditional” registration through election day.

District residents who missed the Feb. 25 registration deadline can register and cast a provisional ballot at the Registrar of Voters office, 1300 S. Grand Ave., Building C, Santa Ana.

The district has some 341,000 registered voters, 13 percent in Yorba Linda. Also included are Orange, Tustin, Villa Park and large parts of Irvine, Anaheim Hills and county territory, with registration percentages of 34.7 Republican, 31.2 Democratic and 30 no preference.

Irvine Mayor Don Wagner is endorsed by the county Republican Party, while former Rep. Loretta Sanchez is endorsed by the county Democratic Party for the nominally non-partisan positions. Three of the current board members are Republicans and one is a Democrat.

Other contenders are all Republicans: former two-term Anaheim Councilwoman Kris Murray, former two-term Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly, attorney Kim-Thy “Katie” Hoang Bayliss, retired county employee Larry Bales and small business owner Katherine Daigle.

One interesting note: Yorba Linda's GOP registration has dipped below 50 percent. At last count, total registration is 43,079: 21,511 Republicans (49.9 percent); 9,504 Democrats (22.1 percent); 10,411 no party preference (24.2 percent); and 1,653 others (3.7 percent).