Contentious race shaping up to replace Ed Royce in Congress: Democrat Cisneros versus GOP Kim

Easily the most contentious contest for North Orange County voters is the race to replace Ed Royce, who is retiring after 26 years in Congress, as measured by the large number of attack ads airing on television, appearing in mailboxes and hand-delivered by paid precinct walkers.

The negative commercials, mailings and handbills seem to outnumber positive advertising for the candidates, Republican Young Kim and Democrat Gil Cisneros, with funding for “hit pieces” coming from each campaign, party organizations and independent committees.

The 39^th District seat in contention represents all or parts of Anaheim Hills, Brea, Buena Park, Fullerton, La Habra, Placentia and Yorba Linda in Orange County and eight cities in east Los Angeles County and southwest San Bernardino County.

Kim has held public office once, serving two years in the state Assembly representing Buena Park, Fullerton, La Palma and four other cities. After beating incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva in 2014, she lost to her in 2016. Kim was a Royce staff member, and he has endorsed her.

Cisneros hasn't held public office. He used a portion of $266 million in 2010 lottery winnings to start a foundation to help students attend college. He served as lieutenant commander in the Navy, and he has been endorsed by former President Barack Obama.

Several groups tracking this year's midterm elections rate the race as a “toss-up,” so local voters will play a large role in deciding which party controls the House of Representatives.

In handicapping the race, consider the following:

--At last count, the district had 354,652 registered voters, 216,771 in Orange County, 99,840 in Los Angeles County and 38,041 in San Bernardino County. The breakdown: 35.11 percent Republican, 34.25 percent Democratic and the balance no party preference or minor parties.

The race/ethnic breakdown is 34.1 percent white, 32.6 percent Hispanic, 28.5 percent Asian, 2.3 percent black and 2.5 percent other.

--In the 2016 presidential contest, district voters cast 140,230 ballots for Hillary Clinton and 116,782 for Donald Trump. Clinton won in all three counties, 51.5 to 42.9 percent. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 by a 3.7 percent margin.

--Seventeen candidates competed in the June 5 primary for the seat. Kim topped the field with 30,019 votes to runner-up Cisneros' 27,469 votes. Seven Republicans received a total 75,430 votes and six Democrats 63,248 votes. Four other candidates totaled 2,458 votes.

Certainly, turnout for the Nov. 6 general election will be higher. In the 2016 presidential primary,140,555 votes were cast, but 263,456 were cast in November. In the 2014 midterm primary, 69,551 votes were cast, but 133,225 were cast in November.

Reminder: Last day to register to vote is Oct. 22 (can be completed on-line at ocvote.com). Mail ballots can be left at any precinct Nov. 6. If mailed, they must be postmarked by Nov. 6 but can arrive by Nov. 9.