History suggests low turnout for recall ballot

An important factor in Yorba Linda's first-ever recall election Oct. 7 will be voter turnout: Just how many of the city's registered voters – 40,515 at last count – will bother to participate by mailing in a special election ballot or visiting a polling place?

Not many, based on this city's historic voting patterns, which is too bad because a low turnout combined with a close count won't quiet the feuding factions campaigning on the recall matter.

Yorba Linda's only prior experience with a stand-alone special election – other than the 1967 incorporation election – was the 2007 ballot to replace Mike Duvall on the city's governing body after he had been elected to the state Assembly in 2006.

That election drew only 8,362 voters out of 40,967 registered at the time for a 20.4 percent turnout, with the only three candidates on the ballot totaling 8,309 votes. Since the Oct. 7 election date is so close to the regular Nov. 4 ballot, maybe more residents will participate.

Even when the city's special ballots are consolidated with a regularly scheduled primary election, turnout doesn't match the numbers voting in November, especially in a presidential year.

A contentious special election combined with the June 2006 primary drew just 13,940 out of 40,293 registered voters for a 34.6 percent turnout, with 13,534 casting “yes” or “no” votes on the narrowly passed Measure B, which requires a public vote on major zoning changes.

Later that year in November nearly 10,000 more Yorba Lindans cast ballots, 23,354 out of 40,693 registered for a 57.4 turnout in a non-presidential year. The 2010 non-presidential November ballot drew 28,522 residents out of 43,681 registered for a 65.3 percent turnout.

The 2008 presidential year drew 35,092 out of 43,010 registered for an 81.6 percent turnout, but fewer – 31,237 – marked “yes” or “no” on an eminent domain matter on city ballots. And despite an all-time high 45,494 registered in 2012, turnout was 35,164 or 77.3 percent.

A big boost in local turnout came when council elections were switched from April to November, starting with the 1984 election, which drew 16,386 voters, compared with 6,416 in 1982.

It's too late for residents to register to vote in the Oct. 7 recall, since the Sept. 22 deadline has passed, but newly sworn citizens can register up to election day at the county registrar's office. Some military deadlines also vary. Call 714-567-7600 for any election information.

Applications to vote-by-mail are due at the registrar's office, Building C at 1300 S. Grand Ave., Santa Ana, by Sept. 30. Sadly, not all who request vote-by-mail ballots bother to return them; just 7,173 Yorba Linda voters returned the 22,016 mailed out for the June primary.

Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by Oct. 7 to count. They also can be turned in at polling places. Voting status can be checked at ocvote.com by clicking on “registration.”