Measuring Yorba Linda's economic vitality

Sales tax collections and employment figures are two good measures of this city's economic vitality, with recent statistic-based predictions showing reasons for optimism and some pessimism.

Yorba Linda's share of the state's sales tax revenue is expected to increase 3 percent in the  2013-14 fiscal year beginning July 1 and another 7.3 percent in 2014-15, but the number of residents who are employed will not match a 2008 high in the foreseeable future.

Currently, the sales tax rate is 8 percent in most of Orange County, with 6.5 percent retained by the state, 1 percent returned to the city and one-half percent for the county Transportation Agency.

The state started charging a sales tax--an initial 2.5 percent fee--in 1933, with the 1 percent local levy added in 1962.  The county transportation tax was added in 1991.

The one percent sales tax collections are anticipated to reach the city's near $6.2 million high hit in 2007-08, with the expected revenue climbing to $5.8 million in 2013-14 and just above $6.2 million in 2014-15, according to an analysis by Finance Director Dave Christian.

That's a jump from an estimated $5.6 million to close this fiscal year June 30.  Recent forecasts, stated Christian, “show larger growth partly due to increased spending and partly due to the infusion of new businesses.”

The big boost expected in the 2014-15 fiscal year will be due “mainly” to a new Costco gas station, which will open sometime during the end of the 2013-14 fiscal year, noted Christian.

Sales tax revenue is the second-largest source of this city's general fund revenue, behind property taxes, which will bring in an estimated $13.4 and $13.6 million during the next two years, with total revenue expected to reach $29.5 million 2013-14 and $29 million 2014-15.

However, the employment picture for city residents is less sanguine, based on an April 2012 report from the Southern California Association of Governments cited in a draft version of an upcoming 2014-21 housing element compiled by a city-hired consultant.

The report stated Yorba Linda had 19,000 employed individuals in 2008, with projections of 17,200 in 2020 and 17,300 in 2035.  The consultant noted the regional association does not project the “the city's employment base to return to pre-recessionary levels.”

While most employed Yorba Lindans work outside the city, most jobs within city limits are held by commuters from other cities.  The 2010 census reported that of 11,416 “primary” jobs in the city, 88 percent are filled by non-Yorba Linda residents.

The largest proportion of the city's jobs, 19.5 percent, are in manufacturing and construction.  Retail and trade positions account for 14.9 percent, accommodations and food services 12.4 percent and healthcare and social assistance 9.3 percent.

The figures for Yorba Linda in this regard mirror the numbers for other north Orange County cities, including Anaheim, Brea, Fullerton and Orange, which also have high percentages of their workforces commuting from outside city limits.