My fearless predictions for 2012

This year marks the 15th my column has appeared in the Yorba Linda Star, and the unexpected longevity has motivated me to add an annual feature to run each January: a list of predictions for the upcoming year, based on years of observing local government.

Here’s the first installment forecasting events for 2012. Should any take place, look for a self-congratulatory column next December; if not, they’ll disappear quietly into the ether.

--My first prediction about a new contract for police services comes with a caveat. Just last month I thought another five-year agreement with Brea would be signed before the current pact expires June 30, with a fairly substantial cost reduction for Yorba Linda.

But dueling mass emails and websites--sadly anonymous, except for high-sounding committee names--and rhetoric at City Council meetings add animosity to the issue.

An agreement with Anaheim or Placentia is unlikely for a variety of reasons, leaving the county sheriff as the only viable option to continuing the 42-year arrangement with Brea. Ill will could derail a deal with Brea, with Sheriff Sandra Hutchens picking up the pieces.

Although my bet remains on Brea, signing a county contract would decimate the Brea department, which grew slowly as Yorba Linda’s population increased. A yo-yo-like return to Brea in five years would require an implausibly fast renewal of the Brea force.

Should council shift to the sheriff, a new contract wouldn’t take effect until mid-year 2013, leaving plenty of time for an initiative petition aimed at overturning the vote or gathering signatures to force a recall election against selected council members.

--My second prediction involves the 2012 council election with three seats on the ballot. Even without a dismissal of the Brea police department, interest by potential contenders will be high, especially for the seat to be vacated by termed-out incumbent Jim Winder.

One major candidate will be Kennith Peterson, a 17-year resident and attorney with an office in Placentia, just west of city limits. He’ll be endorsed by Councilwoman Nancy Rikel, seeking a second term, and Mayor Mark Schwing, running for a fifth term.

Peterson, who picked up nomination papers in 2010 but didn’t file, will be supported by Councilman John Anderson and Yorba Linda Residents for Responsible Representation.

--My third prediction also involves the 2012 municipal ballot, which will include “yes” or “no” votes on rezoning property identified by council for densities up to 30 units per acre.

Measure Z, which would have allowed rezoning of one property, a 3.2-acre Savi Ranch parcel, lost by 197 votes in 2010, despite a supportive voter pamphlet argument by four council members, a $44,752 “Yes on Z” campaign and no money spent in opposition.

This year residents will vote “no” on 11 properties on the ballot, despite a city-run “information” process, and no council members will sign “pro” arguments.