Predicting school enrollment trends is tricky
Predicting school enrollment trends can be a tricky task, even for professional educators and experienced consultants, such as those who have been working on fixing attendance areas for the new Yorba Linda High School the past two years.
A decision on boundaries for the Mustang campus, which opens to 9th and 10th graders in September, is scheduled for a February meeting of Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified School District trustees.
Three boundary scenarios were outlined at four November community meetings and then presented to Superintendent Dennis Smith last month, along with public comments on the plans. Smith will make a recommendation to trustees.
Whatever the board decides could affect Yorba Linda students at El Dorado, Esperanza and Valencia high schools. Detailed street maps of the three scenarios are posted on the district’s Web site, www.pylusd.org.
During the last school year, 3,878 Yorba Linda students attended the district’s three full-service high schools: 2,498 out of 3,334 students at Esperanza, 1,066 out of 2,652 at El Dorado and 314 out of 2,506 at Valencia, for an 8,492 total.
This school year, Esperanza opened with 3,142, El Dorado 2,592 and Valencia 2,579, totaling 8,313. Each scenario totals 8,546, ranging from 2,283 to 2,440 at Esperanza, 2,162 to 2,204 at El Dorado, 1,677 to 1,793 at Yorba Linda and 2,266 at Valencia.
Interestingly, recent enrollment figures are above projections made three years ago, when the current school year total was estimated at 8,069 with a decline to 7,367 by 2012-2013.
Complicating the process of predicting how many students will enroll at each campus is the district’s “choice” policy, which allows parents to select schools outside of a normal attendance area on a space-available basis.
The first of two “choice” application periods is now open and ends Feb. 6. The second period runs from March 2 through April 10. This year’s boundary change only affects students in 8th and 9th grades—current 10th and 11th grade students are not impacted.
District officials are promising that the new campus will have equitable course offerings, including advanced placement classes, and similar extracurricular and athletic programs, although varsity sports competition won’t start until the 2010-2011 school year.
A FINAL NOTE
Staff for the new school will be selected from applications submitted by employees currently at the district’s middle and high school campuses.
Presumably, officials won’t use a past recruitment method. In 1960, George Key wrote that early teacher Eunice Lemke would “laugh when she recalled the inducement…used to attract young teachers. The board would tell the young [female] applicant that there were several well-to-do bachelor citrus ranchers in the community.”
A decision on boundaries for the Mustang campus, which opens to 9th and 10th graders in September, is scheduled for a February meeting of Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified School District trustees.
Three boundary scenarios were outlined at four November community meetings and then presented to Superintendent Dennis Smith last month, along with public comments on the plans. Smith will make a recommendation to trustees.
Whatever the board decides could affect Yorba Linda students at El Dorado, Esperanza and Valencia high schools. Detailed street maps of the three scenarios are posted on the district’s Web site, www.pylusd.org.
During the last school year, 3,878 Yorba Linda students attended the district’s three full-service high schools: 2,498 out of 3,334 students at Esperanza, 1,066 out of 2,652 at El Dorado and 314 out of 2,506 at Valencia, for an 8,492 total.
This school year, Esperanza opened with 3,142, El Dorado 2,592 and Valencia 2,579, totaling 8,313. Each scenario totals 8,546, ranging from 2,283 to 2,440 at Esperanza, 2,162 to 2,204 at El Dorado, 1,677 to 1,793 at Yorba Linda and 2,266 at Valencia.
Interestingly, recent enrollment figures are above projections made three years ago, when the current school year total was estimated at 8,069 with a decline to 7,367 by 2012-2013.
Complicating the process of predicting how many students will enroll at each campus is the district’s “choice” policy, which allows parents to select schools outside of a normal attendance area on a space-available basis.
The first of two “choice” application periods is now open and ends Feb. 6. The second period runs from March 2 through April 10. This year’s boundary change only affects students in 8th and 9th grades—current 10th and 11th grade students are not impacted.
District officials are promising that the new campus will have equitable course offerings, including advanced placement classes, and similar extracurricular and athletic programs, although varsity sports competition won’t start until the 2010-2011 school year.
A FINAL NOTE
Staff for the new school will be selected from applications submitted by employees currently at the district’s middle and high school campuses.
Presumably, officials won’t use a past recruitment method. In 1960, George Key wrote that early teacher Eunice Lemke would “laugh when she recalled the inducement…used to attract young teachers. The board would tell the young [female] applicant that there were several well-to-do bachelor citrus ranchers in the community.”
posted by Jim Drummond at 12:00 PM
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